September 24, 2019

Betting Against the Public: Does This Still Work?

Betting Against the Public: Does This Still Work?

Betting against the public is one of the oldest sports betting strategies in the book, and also the most popular and easy to understand how and why it works. That is why a lot of bettors love this strategy. Placing your bet against the public perception is worthwhile for many reasons, and becoming aware of these opportunities will give you more winnings in the long run.

In simple terms, betting against the public means betting against what the majority of bettors think will happen. The thinking behind this strategy starts with the fact that the majority of the bettors aren’t right all the time. If they were, a lot of players would be successful sports bettors. Moreover, betting against the public requires the ability to see when the betting is not good.

Which side is the Public Betting?

The public side is simply the bet that more bettors are wagering on. You will know which side the public is betting on by looking at the odds for a specific sports event. Oddsmakers manipulate lines to attract the same action on each side, so you can be almost confident that the pick that offers fewer odds is the “against the public” option.

Look for Moving Lines

Usually, sportsbooks want to have the roughly same amount of action on both sides of a bet. The sportsbook will adjust the lines and odds if the majority of the public wagers are betting massively on one side. Moving lines are a good indicator that most public is betting on one side. It is a good opportunity to fade the public if you think they are wrong, you can even get better odds since the casino is trying to make them a less popular side of the bet more enticing.

Factors that Influence Public Opinion

Public opinion can be formed by many various factors and not all of them are based on hard facts. If you can recognize spots where most people’s opinions are being influenced by other factors it can be a great chance to bet against the public.

Here are some common factors that influence public opinion:

Home Advantage

In sports like football, basketball, and hockey, home advantage has a huge factor that can influence public opinion. While it’s true that home is a big advantage, still do research and pay attention to short term history to see if playing at home can help them.

Star Players

Star Players – Recognizing a star player can be hugely relevant in determining how the public bets. Star players have a huge influence on the outcome of a game, however, the range of their influence can be changed.

Team Reputation

High profile teams are more likely to bet on public bettors. Relax fans are likely to be influenced by their basic knowledge about a sport, teams. They are betting on fame rather than probability.

Media Narrative

Media can play a big role if they are hyping one outcome over another and some bettors are easily influenced by the media narrative. The more popular a team, the more action there will be on them.

Gambling Psychology

This is an important thought for bettors who is like waging against the public. Another important thing to keep in mind is that even if you think the public thought is correct but the public is off in how many teams will win, you still have the chance to fade the public.

Betting against the public is a great sports betting strategy, and if used correctly it can significantly improve your line. At the end of the day, it pays to be different. A lot of successful bettors have done well fading the public and you can do the same.

Enjoy gambling!

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